الموقع: ?How will the alliance of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh leave Yemen

الموقع 0 تعليق 0 ارسل طباعة
الموقع بوست - Ahmed Al-Shalafi
الخميس, 08 نوفمبر, 2018 09:00 صباحاً
Before any consultation or agreement of any kind, the Emiratis want to make sure the handover of Al-Hodeidah or even the West Coast region to Tariq Saleh and his troops to secure these areas under their control. In the other hand, they want to use this place as trade to make sure of the involvment of Saleh's family in the next consultations or the next solution, if there is a solution.
 
In any case it is not important for them to return Yemen as it was.
 
The Emiratis are ambitious for having a south under their full control even if they announced the departure, there will be the elites, military and security belts forces which have upto 50,000 members in the cities of the south.

This number is like an army of a state, which is fully equipped and works under their command in those areas.
 
In the Western Coast and Al-Hodeidah, Tariq Saleh has thousands of fighters that have become an organized army under his command and they have more military equipment than the military equipment possessed by southerners in their provinces.
 
In most cases The Emirati fiction leads to chaos and division, that means perhaps there is a tendency for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Americans to see Yemen of four groups as the following:
 
1. The whole South with its ports under the control of the UAE and its militias.
 
2. The Western Coast and Al-Hodeidah ports and seas under the control of the UAE militias of Tariq Saleh.
 
3. The North and some parts of Al-Hodeidah and the West under the control of the Houthis.
 
4. The remainder of the areas as Taiz, Marib and others will be under the control of the legitimacy and the military and political components supporting them.
 
This is the disintegrated scene that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have entered Yemen for. Even if a national force (which is currently non-existed) decides to intervene, it will take time to dismantle all this chaos and return the country to dialogue and consensus on any principle.
 
The Question now is, What are the American calls for solutions and the reasons of its timing? There is no doubt that the Saudi exposure in the Khashoggi crisis is the most prominent reason and coincided with the desire of Saudi Arabia to get out of the quagmire of Yemen, especially in the border and also the desire of the United States to stop this war, which reflected a lot of criticism and inconvenience on the US administration.
 
But the Americans do not want to provide a comprehensive solution to the crisis, but a partial solution is to stop the war between the Houthis and the Saudi army on the border, and stop the air raids, which cost Americans their reputation and cost the Saudis reputation and money.
 
The opening of Sanaa airport and the exchange of some prisoners will also be possible.
 
Will this end the war?
 
Certainly this internal war will not end and may last for years, but will start a phase of chaos.

Sooner or later, the Saudis and Emiratis will decide to gradually leave Yemen, leaving behind tens of thousands of militias under their control and thousands of military equipment, Just as in Libya!
 
But let me be optimistic

Will Yemen be like Libya ?!
 


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